Thursday, January 20, 2005

Amidst all the discussion regarding the Cubs' current outfield, I thought I would run a rudimentary analysis of the Cubs' current projected outfield starters against the Cardinals and Astros projected outfields.

This analysis is a very simplistic one at best, so don't take much from it. It was meant to be an objective way to measure Mr. Hendry's optimism against my co-blogger Chris' pessimism. If I get more time, I'll try to come up with something a little more meaningful and maybe I'll analyze the infields as well. I'm assuming (and we know what that makes of me) a Sanders, Edmonds, Walker outfield for the Cardinals and a Berkman, Biggio, Orlando Palmeiro outfield for the Astros.


Season Average (based on 3-year averages for projected 2005 starters)
TeamRHRRBIBBSOSBBASLG%OBPOPS
Cubs87.6228.8883.9653.81141.8611.130.2720.4910.3360.827
Cardinals98.8232.94101.5280.19131.9011.610.2890.5530.3800.933
Astros89.8719.9074.2872.0091.278.240.2810.4650.3660.831


Method

Basically, I looked at the projected starters for each of the three NL Central teams we're looking at and calculated three-year averages on the major statistical categories. From that, I determined a per game average for each team and used that in determining an estimated 162 game statistical line. This in no way takes into account player health, statistical trends, ballparks, etc.

Deductions

Two alarming items that you wouldn't need this analysis to point out:
- The Cub outfield is averaging 141 K per season against 54 walks
- The Cub OBP is 33 points lower than the Astros (even without Beltran) and 44 points lower than the Cardinals

Before taking a look at these numbers, I was feeling OK about entering the season with a Hollandsworth/Dubois platoon, but after seeing where the Cubs actually fall in terms of outfield production against their NL Central counterparts and taking into account Hollandworth/Sosa health trends, I might start whistling my co-bloggers tune.