Thursday, January 20, 2005

More food for thought

I've run some additional basic projections for a Cubs outfield that would include Maggs and the Cubs' infield as compared to the Cardinals and Astros. Again, these numbers are terribly basic and make all sorts of ridiculous assumptions such as no injuries and each player's ability to match his per-game performance over the last three seasons.


2005 Projected Averages for Cub Outfielders
TeamRHRRBIBBSOSBBASLG%OBPOPS
Sosa, Patterson, Hollandsworth / Dubois87.6228.8883.9653.81141.8611.130.2720.4910.3360.827
Sosa, Patterson, Ordonez102.9334.72102.7958.93135.4411.620.2850.5170.3460.864
% Change17.5%20.2%22.4%9.5%-4.5%4.4%4.5%5.3%3.1%4.4%


This, of course, is making the monstrous assumption that Ordonez would be able to reproduce his per-game average from the past three years. We don't know how his knee will function after those foreign doctors blasted it with a dirty bomb. However, if he can indeed perform at the level he has been for the last three years, the Cubs would stand to make significant improvements over a Hollandsworth/Dubois platoon.

According to my incredibly rudimentary analysis, the Cubs would be able to make a 4.5% improvement in strikeouts, 4.4% in SB, 4.5% in BA, 5.3% in SLG%, and 4.4% in OPS over their current outfield that includes Hollandsworth and Dubois. These improvements decrease the gap between the Cubs and both the Cardinals and Astros in the outfield department. The ever-present dilemma of risk and return has arrived.

In the infield department, it looks like the Cubs have a slight edge over the Astros (Bagwell, Vizcaino, Everett, Ensberg), but slightly trail the Cardinals (Pujols, Grudzielanek, Eckstein, Rolen) where it counts.


Infield Comparisons
Per Game Average
TeamRHRRBIBBSOSBBASLG%OBPOPS
Cubs0.580.160.590.350.580.050.2850.4840.3460.830
Cardinals0.650.150.560.390.480.060.2990.4870.3640.852
Astros0.480.120.440.350.540.050.2750.4420.3470.789











Season Average
TeamRHRRBIBBSOSBBASLG%OBPOPS
Cubs93.3025.1694.7957.4794.698.630.2850.4840.3460.830
Cardinals106.0523.7591.5362.5977.599.710.2990.4870.3640.852
Astros77.1418.6570.7057.1186.707.710.2750.4420.3470.789