ARAMIS forever
So far it seems to be all goodness and light in the Cubs camp. Everyone is upbeat as they have always been at this stage. Even Mike Nadel of Copley News, who I am beginning to think is Bipolar where the Cubs are concerned, is talking about the new post-Sosa prospects.

One thing that keeps gnawing at me is now the Cubs are talking alot about how important Aramis Ramirez is to this offense with the departure of Sosa and Alou. Agreed. So why is it that after the Sosa departure was official we saw them sit down and complete the deal to give Aramis a ONE year contract? If he does put up the breakout superstar year that we are all apparantly expecting him to deliver in order to get this team into the postseason, he will only be more expensive to sign next year. I don't get it. Anyone?

More PNR Cubs Roundtable Questions & Answers…

Here’s round 2 of our roundtable questions and answers. As before, some of the answers were submitted before the momentous events of last week.

6) Give one former Cub from the 2003 divisional championship team you think would most help this team today.

CHRIS: No question in my mind – Kenny Lofton. I think losing Lofton was significant – the Cubs never adequately replaced Lofton in the leadoff role to set the table for everyone else. Wish the Cubs would have had him last year to tell you the truth – but who needs a proven veteran when you’ve got a guy like C-Pat?!

BILL: Easy, Kenny Lofton. Wish we had 3 of him in the outfield.

CAMDEN: Kenny Lofton would really give the Cubs a lift. His presence down the stretch in 2003 was incredibly valuable.

RANDY: Gotta go with Kenny Lofton, Cubs need a LF and a lead off batter, can you say Lofton?

7) Give your recommended batting order for the Cubs.

CHRIS: Well, it’s difficult to say since the speculation is that the Cubs will make some move to fill one of those outfield spots. So this batting order comes from the roster as it presently stands – and I can’t say I’m too excited about it. Also – as a note – I put more weight on quality of the bat than on alternating lefties and righties in the line-up in terms of determining batting order.

1) Jerry Hairston Jr. (RF)
2) Todd Walker (2B)
3) Nomar Garciaparra (SS)
4) Aramis Ramirez (3B)
5) Derrek Lee (1B)
6) Burnitz/Hollandsworth (LF)
7) Michael Barrett (C)
8) Corey Patterson (CF)
9) Pitcher

BILL: Assumption: No Ordonez
(vs Righties)
1) Hairston (LF)
2) Walker (2B)
3) Garciaparra (SS)
4) Burnitz (RF)
5) Ramirez (3B)
6) Lee (1B)
7) Patterson (CF)
8) Barrett (C)
9) Pitcher

(vs Southpaws)
1) Hairston (LF)
2) Walker (2B)
3) Garciaparra (SS)
4) Ramirez (3B)
5) Lee (1B)
6) Burnitz (RF)
7) Patterson (CF)
8) Barrett (C)
9) Pitcher


CAMDEN:

1) Hairston, Jr. (R)
2) Garciaparra (R)
3) Ramirez (R)
4) Hollandsworth (L)
5) Lee (R)
6) Walker (L)
7) Barrett (R)
8) Patterson (L)
9) Pitcher

This lineup depends on if Corey is hot or not. If Corey is in a hot
streak, I'd swap Hairston and Patterson or place Corey in the two hole
and move everyone else down.

RANDY:

1) Walker
2) Nomar
3) Aram
4) Lee
5) Sosa
6) Patterson
7) Dubois
8) Barrett
9) Pitcher


8) Give your recommended batting order for the Cardinals (we have to throw Randy a bone).

CHRIS: Here it goes:

1) Eckstein (SS)
2) Walker (RF)
3) Pujols (1B)
4) Rolen (3B)
5) Edmonds (CF)
6) Sanders (LF)
7) Grudzielanek (2B)
8) Molina (C)
9) Pitcher

BILL: Doesn't matter. Any lineup Tony strings together will be formidable.

CAMDEN:

1) Eckstein (R)
2) Walker (L)
3) Pujols (R)
4) Edmonds (L)
5) Rolen (R)
6) Sanders (R)
7) Grudzielanek (R)
8) Molina (R)
9) Pitcher

RANDY:

1) Eckstein
2) Walker
3) Pujols
4) Rolen
5) Edmonds
6) Grudzy
7) Sanders
8) Molina
9) Pitcher


9) Now that Alou is no longer a Cub, who can fulfill the role of "most horrible base runner?"

CHRIS: This is actually one of Camden’s question. I thought that it was pretty funny so I included it for laughs with the thought being that I could slot Sosa & his ridiculous bunny hop here. However, Sosa won’t be hopping around Wrigley this season, so he’s out as a candidate. And looking at the current line-up (unless I’m missing someone) I don’t see any obvious base running misfits. Therefore, in the great spirit of Jeff Suppan (think 2004 World Series game 3) I’ll have to go with a pitcher I suppose – how does Mark Prior strike you (remember that disastrous base running collision with Marcus Giles in 2003)?

BILL: Lee looks pretty confused out there until about June 1.

CAMDEN: I'm going with Corey Patterson. Although Corey is by far our best base stealer, he gets picked-off an awful lot.

RANDY: I really don't know enough about the Cubs base running to make an educated answer to this one.


10) If you could get just one trade before opening day, who or what would you go after? (Cubs and Cards both – another bone for the Randster)

CHRIS: Well even though this question says TRADE, I’m interpreting it to mean ACQUISITION and so I say pick up Magglio Ordonez, and if it takes giving him a 3-5 year contract – give it to the man (and include some protective clauses for health if you have to). This is a guy who has hit very close to .300+ the last eight years running (!), and he had averaged 32 home runs and 118 RBI in the five seasons prior to his injury in 2004 (!!). I just don’t understand the lack of interest in Maggs by either the Cubs front office or the blogger army. There’s no other way to put this - If he is healthy the man is a superstar! If Hendry picks up Maggs – all is forgiven. If we’re strictly talking trade – I’ll join the rest of the dreaming ranks of the blogger army and say Aubrey Huff. That would go a long way to replacing Sosa’s numbers at least.

As far as the Cards – Not many areas of weakness besides possibly some power off the bench (Mabry possibly qualifies as a legitimate power bat off the bench). So a nice pick up of a slugger who can ride your bench and occasionally spell the big dogs might not be a bad idea for the Cards. In fact, I’ve got a great idea for them – Jeromy Burnitz! It’s been said he wants to play for a contender! Is this good or what?

BILL: I'd trade Iowa for a top tier closer. [No answer given for Cards]

CAMDEN: I would have to go after a closer, even though the cost would be steep. I'd like to see a creative deal for someone like Danny Graves. They've got a really weak starting rotation and might be interested in picking up some of the Cubs prospects. Maybe we can send them Dr. Tightpants who I'm sure would love to room with Paul Wilson. [No answer given for Cards]


RANDY: Well assuming this Sosa deal is going through, I move Hairston and a few of those money-ball pitchers you guys got in the minors for Aubrey Huff from Tampa Bay. He is a great young player and Tampa will probably ship him since he is due for a huge pay day next season. [No answer given for Cards]

Well there you have it. It appears that my desire for Hendry to add Magglio to the Cubs lineup is dead with the recent reports of him signing with the Tigers (This is essentially a repeat of what happened in 2004 with Pudge).

Anyway - look for more roundtable answers in the coming days.

And in case you missed it - Bill has a very insightful comparison to what has happened to the Cubs from 2003-2005 and what happened to them in 1969-1971. You should definitely check it out.

I think his analysis is spot-on and it portends ominously for this current Cubs lineup. As it currently stands - I believe that this team will finish third in the division (and that's assuming no injuries).

Now, perhaps that dire prediction places me in Al Yellon's "screamer" category - which is fine, I suppose. If the alternative is coming across as a paid shill for the Tribune, then I'll take the "screamer" label any day.

THOUGHTS FROM THE OLD FART

Christopher hinted that I may be the oldest contributing blogger at this site. I’ll have to admit that I do find myself looking back at the past more frequently every day, a sure sign of becoming a bonafide “old fart.” Now, while rehashing ancient history can be painful it can also be instructive. So while we wait to see if Mr. Hendry is going to do anything more to shore up the offense, let’s take a trip down memory lane.

I first became a Cub fan during that famous summer of 1969 at the tender age of 13. The Cubs were rolling along and life was grand, but then September came and the “unthinkable” happened.

Somehow we all got through that pain. I even found it in my heart to root for the Mets in the World Series (always been a NL fan). Eventually the spring of ’70 arrived and lo and behold the Cubs were rolling again. This team seemed to have even more depth than the ’69 team, and they knew what a pennant race felt like, so we were excited again. I seem to remember that the ’70 Cubs had a significant lead on the rest of the NL East for much of the season, but in the end the result was the same - they finished second again, this time 5 games behind Willie Stargell’s Pirates.

The 1970 edition of the Cubs was one of my favorites - lots of pop in the bats and a great starting pitching staff. Sound familiar? So as I was waxing nostalgic a couple of weeks ago I began to think about how this team stacked up against the 2004 Cubs. I believe I have found some interesting correlations.

All of the numbers I am going to present here came from the good people at Baseball-Reference.com

The ’70 Cubs finished 84-78, only 6 games over .500 in spite of outscoring the opposition 806 to 679 on 179 homeruns. Baseball-Reference’s statistical database on each team includes a factor developed by Bill James known as the “Pythagorean Winning Percentage”. This percentage is used to calculate what a team’s record should have been based on the number of runs they scored relative to their opponents. As the story goes, comparing this with the actual won-loss record provides some clue with regard to the “luck” the team had. I think what this may indicate is a team’s effectiveness or ineffectiveness at winning one-run games. And that, my friends, essentially boils down to the ability to play “small ball.” When the PWP is applied to the 1970 Cubs we get an expected W-L record of 94-68. Evidently some underachievement took place (sound familiar again?). That’s the difference in finishing 5 games ahead of the Pirates instead of 5 games behind them.

Anecdotally, I do remember that my lovable 1970 Cubbies were one of the most famous teams for sitting back and waiting for the homerun. Here are a few facts that bear this out. They had great power for the era. Billy Williams led the attack out of LF with 42 HR and 149 RBI. Jim Hickman split about half his time between RF and 1B and tallied 32HR with 115 RBI. When Hickman wasn’t in right Johnny Callison usually was and he added 19 HR and 68 RBI just playing on a part-time basis. Ron Santo at 3rd - 26 HR 114 RBI.

Just four men combined for 119 HR and 446 RBI. Now, let’s think about small ball for a second - moving a runner over or stealing a base. The lead off man, shortstop Don Kessinger led the team with 12 stolen bases. Now remember - for 3 to 4 at bats in a game Kessinger is going to follow the pitcher up to the plate. But he led this team in sacrifice bunts with, count ‘em, 10! What does that say about the rest of the lineup? Even more embarrassing is the fact that Fergie Jenkins tied Kessinger for the team lead and he only played once every 4 days. And Jenkins was a fairly good hitter with power so when he approached the plate with runners on he wasn’t necessarily in an automatic sacrifice situation.

As for the 1970 pitching staff; the four man rotation of Jenkins, Bill Hands, Ken Holtzman and Milt Pappas won 22,18,17 and 10 games respectively and the staff finished 4th out of 12 in team ERA. These four guys combined for an incredible 57 complete games! Yes, in those days the game was managed differently and CG’s were more commonplace, but this tally by the Cubbies was almost double those of both Pittsburgh and the NL Champion Big Red Machine which won 102 games.

Ok, now fast forward to the 2004 Cubs - Record 89-73. Pythagorean W-L 94-68 - and identical to the 1970 Cubs. Only 789 runs scored on a record 235 homeruns.

We have the four top guys (Alou, Ramirez, Sosa and Lee) combining for only 387 RBIs from an incredible 142 HR. Again, small ball tells the story. Corey did swipe 32 bases when he wasn’t flailing at air. But in the area of sacrifice bunts we had no player in double figures. The team was led in sacrifices by Maddux with 9 followed by Zambrano with 8. Ramon Martinez led “everyday” players with a whopping 7. How important were the sacrifices? I don’t know but I find it interesting that Maddux and Zambrano each won 16 games. No one else was in double figures. A pitcher can sure help himself this way in a one-run ballgame.

I’ve belabored this way too much. I hope you’re still with me. My final point - and here's the significant comparison: In spite of losing the division the year before, the front office did practically nothing to upgrade the Cubs for 1971. They felt they had a good team so they put the same 9, save Randy Hundley (whose knees were going), on the field the following year. Manager Leo Durocher ran the offense in the same "station-to-station, let’s wait for the homerun" manner as he had the previous year and the results were even worse. The team turned further south in spite of the fact that the starting pitchers had phenomenal talent, with Ferguson Jenkins compiling a Cy Young winning 24-13 season.

So far the 2005 Cub front office has done LESS than maintain the 2004 status quo.

Ouch.

Well, and as many of you already know by now…



Punxsutawney Phil emerged from his hole on Gobbler's Knob Wednesday and saw his shadow, which portends another six weeks of wintry weather for us all - if you believe in that sort of thing, that is.

And as fans of the only truly cursed team in baseball - many of us do, in fact, believe in the power of such things. This gloomy forecast seems only appropriate, if you think about it, in light of recent developments in the world of Cubdom.

:-/

You have to love this about winter though – it really makes you look forward to the Spring. I lived in Los Angeles for 3 years during my graduate work and I cannot tell you how I missed the change of seasons that I grew up with here in the beautiful Midwest. The seasonal markers that accompany Spring, Summer, Fall, and yes – even Winter are things I think we often take for granted. What would life be like with no discernible difference between Autumn, Winter, and Spring? Well, I can tell you based on personal experience – tediously dull!

In any event, Jim Hendry is preparing to emerge from his hole at 1060 W. Addison and if he sees his shadow, as Punxsutawney Phil did, the Cubs forecast will be similarly dismal since it appears likely that they’re about to sign Jeromy Burnitz to a deal reportedly worth $5 million for one year with a mutual option for a 2nd year that could kick the value up to $11.5 million:

The Cubs' long and tiring, but never boring, off-season could be tied up in one neat little package sometime Wednesday night.

That's when the long-awaited, history-making, franchise-altering trade of Sammy Sosa to Baltimore should be completed—finally and officially—and the Cubs should be able to announce their signing of free agent Jeromy Burnitz to take his place.

So the Cubs are paying the O’s $12.5 million for Sosa this year and $5 million for Burnitz this year – which means, essentially, that they just got Jeromy Burnitz for $17.5 million. I could be wrong, but I think I’d rather have Sosa for the same cheese.

Here’s Burnitz’s numbers over the last couple of years (when he played for Milwaukee, the Mets, and the Dodgers):

Batting Statistics for Jeromy Burnitz (2000-2003)
Year	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	BA	OBP	SLG%	OPS
2000 (161 games)	91	38	98	99	121	6	.232	.356	.456	.812
2001 (154 games)	104	34	100	80	150	0	.251	.347	.504	.851
2002 (154 games)	65	19	54	58	135	10	.215	.311	.365	.676
2003 (126 games)	63	31	77	35	112	5	.239	.299	.487	.786

Those are Burnitz’s numbers when he wasn’t regularly playing at Coors field during the last 4 years. How did he do at Coors last year?

Batting Statistics for Jeromy Burnitz (2004)
Year	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	BA	OBP	SLG%	OPS
2004 (150 games)	94	37	110	58	124	5	.283	.356	.559	.915

Quite an improvement wouldn’t you say? Now let me ask you – which Burnitz do you think the Cubs are likely to see this year at Wrigley? The 2004 Coors version who hit .283/.356/.559 (37 HR’s & 110 RBI’s) or the 2003 Shea/Dodger Stadium version who hit .239/.299/.487 (31 HR’s & 77 RBI’s)? For $17.5 million, the Cubs had better hope it’s the former.

More Groundhog Material…

Enough of the depressing stuff. Did you know that the Southern states have their own prognosticating groundhog? General Beauregard Lee emerged from his hole at the Yellow River Game Ranch outside Atlanta and unlike Phil, this chubby critter did not see his shadow – which means an early Spring – at least for the South.

Sadly, though, Beau is set to retire after this year – and he’s taking a 97% accuracy rate with him into retirement – a distinction which led to honorary doctorate degrees from both the University of Georgia and Georgia State University. What sort of academic credentials do you think Punxsutawney Phil has?

Beau’s got it pretty good in his old age, even though his handlers are trying to get him on a low-carb Atkins type diet (bleh!):

Handlers at the ranch decided this year to give Beau a home worthy of his stature. On Tuesday, he was moved into a three-story mansion built on his property, appropriately called Weathering Heights.

To lure him out of his new palace Wednesday, ranch handlers again were planning to ply Beau with hash browns and fresh fruit as onlookers cheered, "Go, Beau!"

Last year, Beau was introduced to the low-carb diet when handlers laid out Atkins-approved chicken and cheesy eggs at sunrise to draw the groundhog from his home. He had grown so pudgy the door to his shed had been widened. But Beau ignored that breakfast, choosing instead to chew on the door of his house.

It seems that those doctorates weren’t bestowed in vain on Beau – even he had the good sense to stay away from Atkins!

Now, if only Jim Hendry would display the same type of discernment and stay away from Burnitz we would all be able to exhale.

On the other hand (and after a few swills of the cool-aid), I’m thinking to myself - maybe all of this will actually turn out for the better. What are the chances of that?

When you find yourself in a difficult spot…



it's not so much how you got there that's important but how you respond.

Take this Slovakian gentleman (as you'll see, I am using this term loosely), Richard Kral, for example. Apparently, Richard was motoring along the Tatra mountain range in Northern Slovakia when he suddenly found himself overtaken and buried by an avalanche.

Fortunately, Richard possessed both the necessary resources and a shameless temerity that enabled him to discard discretion and (quite literally) find the relief he was so desperately looking for:

A Slovak man trapped in his car under an avalanche freed himself by drinking 60 bottles of beer and urinating on the snow to melt it.

Rescue teams found Richard Kral drunk and staggering along a mountain path four days after his Audi car was buried in the Slovak Tatra mountains.

He told them that after the avalanche, he had opened his car window and tried to dig his way out.

But as he dug with his hands, he realised the snow would fill his car before he managed to break through.

He had 60 half-litre bottles of beer in his car as he was going on holiday, and after cracking one open to think about the problem he realised he could urinate on the snow to melt it, local media reported.

He said: "I was scooping the snow from above me and packing it down below the window, and then I peed on it to melt it. It was hard and now my kidneys and liver hurt. But I'm glad the beer I took on holiday turned out to be useful and I managed to get out of there."

Parts of Europe have this week been hit by the heaviest snowfalls since 1941, with some places registering more than ten feet of snow in 24 hours.

Now apart from being somewhat of an amusing story, the preceding account illustrates something that I think Jim Hendry could well learn from. It’s actually a time-honored principle that we all learned intuitively the first time we found ourselves in a grim situation – Desperate times call for desperate measures. And since that always proves inevitably to be the case, when you find yourself in a serious dilemma, a half-hearted reaction just isn’t going to pass muster.

You’ll note that in the above story the guy didn’t squander away his narrow window of opportunity with the half-hearted consumption of a mere 10 beers. He didn’t waste his time with a measly 20 – no, not even 30 beers – but double that! The dude downed 60! Count them – S-I-X-T-Y! He was like a modern-day Cool Hand Luke – except with bottles of Topvar instead of hard-boiled eggs. Think about it - when you’re buried under an avalanche it’s not a time to be messing around with half-hearted solutions – you do what you need to do to get out of the mess.

Now, the Cubs find themselves in a similarly desperate situation. If you’ll recall, they finished 7th in run production in the National league last season and they just lost their #2 and #4 offensive producers (I won’t mention the loss of Clement and the bullpen problems). So far (and with apologies to Jerry hairston Jr.) - no one acquired fits the bill as an adequate offensive replacement for Alou and/or Sosa. Not exactly the types of off season moves I think any of us were hoping for.

But, nevertheless, that’s where the Cubs find themselves – buried deep. And as I said – it’s not so much how they got there that is of significance but how they respond now that they’re already in this mess.

That being said - signing Jeromy Burnitz would be like trying to apply a band-aid to a severed artery. That’s not the solution Jim – you know that and we know it – and we know that you know that we know it – so don’t try to pull a quick one on us. A move like this is only going to make matters worse. I would actually prefer that you do nothing and wait for a midseason upgrade to tell you the truth.

Of course (and since you’re interested), my first choice is that you quit messing around with nasty rumors of Cliff Floyd, Jeromy Burnitz, and Eric Byrnes. Fly your rear end out to SoCal to watch Magglio work out. If he satisfies you that his leg is healthy and won’t fall off during the season, sign the man to a 3-5 year deal or whatever it takes.

These are desperate times Jim and if it takes you calling up Omar Minaya to learn what kind of spell he cast on the Wilpon’s to get them to open the coffers up for Pedro and Beltran – get on the horn and then cast that same type of mojo on the Trib execs!

We’ll be watching.