Thursday, July 14, 2005

Do the math folks - it's over...

Despite all the evidence (and we have over half a season's worth) which to a reasonable person would suggest exactly the opposite conclusion, some eternally optimistic folks continue to hold out hope for the postseason for this club.

Well, let's do the math, and you can arrive at your own conclusions.

The team's current record is 43-44 and they have 75 games remaining:

9 vs. PIT
10 vs. CIN
14 vs. STL
7 vs. SF
4 vs. ARI
3 vs. PHI
3 vs. NYM
10 vs. HOU
3 vs. COL
3 vs. ATL
3 vs. FLA
3 vs. LAD
3 vs. MIL

What will it take to get to the postseason? Well that's a speculative question -and as we know - there are 2 routes to get there - win your division or win the wild card. For all intensive purposes (and barring some ridiculous disaster) the Cardinals have already locked up the division. So that leaves the wild card as the most realistic avenue for the Cubs to attempt to enter the postseason.

What will it take to win the wild card? It's anybody's guess, but you have to start somewhere, and so I'm guessing that possibly 93 games puts you right in that race (and this may very well be too low - last year it took 92 games to win the wildcard and this year the Braves and Nationals are both looking tough). So, for the sake of argument, let's start with 93 games gets you in (and as I said, I think this number may be on the low side).

That means the Cubs would have to go 50-25 over their next 75 games, and to do that my friends, they would have to win every one of their remaining series (and that includes taking 8 of the 14 remaining games with the Cardinals).

Now let me ask you - how probable do you think it is that this team will win every one of their remaining series?

And even this may not be enough, as I mentioned - so it may also take a few series sweeps as well to actually get in.

There is no way my friends - pack it up and start planning for next year. This team has played itself into a position where there is now no margin for error. If you think this team can win every one of it's remaining series, DEA agents probably need to be paying you a visit.

But, and nevertheless - as one erstwhile commentator has shown himself especially adept at saying...

Keep the faith!