At least someone is hopeful...

The following comments are from Cubs GM Jim Hendry, yesterday, and with regard to the anticipated return of Wood, Garciaparra, and the addition of Williamson:

As for the roster, things have a way of taking care of themselves. We just have to play well for the five days. Hopefully we will get a big lift from them. You know, obviously we're hoping Woody will give us a big lift in the pen. He threw very well the last two pens here with no discomfort. Scott, you never know how that's going to go. He's throwing very well - he's been working steadily at 90-93, working mostly at 92s. His slider is pretty good. Hopefully, we can get good fortune like we did last year with Ryan Dempster. Scott has already spent his whole career in the 8th and 9th innings, so it wouldn't be the same adjustment that Ryan had to come back.

For Nomar, Oneri (Fleita) was with him in Peoria and he really showed no signs of any problems. He looked just like the guy moving around in spring training. Obviously, we wanted to get him a few more at-bats. He's chomping at the bit to go now, but you do need more than 7 or 8 at-bats. Hopefully, we'll get a good taste of the old Nomar and that will give us a big, big boost.

As far as the roster goes, you know you might have some ideas today of how you're going to do it, but that can change by Friday. Somebody else could come down with some tendinitis and make the pitching decisions easier. I'm not really worried about it. I'm very hopeful that they will all come back and be at least a great percentage of what you would expect them to be.

I've bolded every time he used some form of the word hope in that statement. As you can see, there's a lot of hope, apparently, at 1060 W. Addison these days.

Is such hope, well founded? Well, Here are just a few of the questions I have:

How long will it take Nomar to get back into full form? And how long do the Cubs have, exactly, in terms of making a move up the wild card ladder? If you'll recall, it took Grudzie about two months to finally get back to form when he came back from his achilles injury last year, while a capable Todd Walker wasted away on the bench.

What about Wood and Williamson? Well, hope is about all you've got with these two very uncertain propositions - Wood out of the pen (never done or even attempted) and Williamson returning from Tommy John (Dempster certainly didn't have the form when he returned last August that he has now).

Is this uncertainty what Hendry is pinning his hope on? Hope for what? The playoffs this year? Are you kidding me? Is Nomar going to instantly transform this team so that they can consistently put together hits and runs? Will Wood and Williamson pitch perfectly out of the pen (which is what this team needs with the razor thin margins this offense produces)?

Surviving what exactly...

More Jim Hendry comments, from Friday's Tribune:

Hendry said the Cubs could survive with what they have, especially if Garciaparra returns successfully from surgery in another week. "Nomar's a pretty good hitter," Hendry said when asked if he absolutely needed one more bat. "Hopefully we can do something by Sunday, but it's not a situation where [we're] desperate."

I'm not sure what context he is using the term survive, because clearly he cannot be talking about the team surviving the playoff race.

I can only conclude that Jim Hendry must have been referring to his job when he talked about being able to "survive" when these three join the roster later this week. After all, someone has to begin to ask questions about the effectiveness of a GM who has cobbled together a team that is near the top of the league in payroll and yet struggles to hover around .500.

So the question is - is he right?

Will the addition of these three enable Hendry to survive another year of high salaries and mediocre results?

Most probably. Blind faith Cubs fans (with apologies in advance to Al) have proven themselves particularly astute at enabling an inept franchise whose only true skill seems to be an uncanny ability to consistently produce substandard teams.

I can dream can't I?

No I'm not talking about the Cubs adding Super star Manny Ramirez (although that would be nice), I'm talking about the Cubs losing Dusty Baker. This would be addition by subtraction in my opinion. From the Los Angeles Times:

Dusty Baker would like to return to Los Angeles to manage the Dodgers, according to a person close to the Chicago Cub manager.

Baker, who played eight seasons for the Dodgers, is unhappy in Chicago, where he has managed the Cubs for 2 1/2 years, the source said. Baker has 1 1/2 years left on a contract that coincides with current Dodger manager Jim Tracy's, though Tracy could opt out of his contract after this season.

According to the source, "Dusty wants desperately to manage the Dodgers … and [supporters] would love to get a buzz going about Dusty in case the Dodgers were thinking of letting Tracy go at the end of the season.

"He would love the Dodgers to come calling and then hope the Cubs would let him go."

That would be a departure from Baker's previous feelings about the Dodgers.

When he left the organization for San Francisco after the 1983 season, Baker believed he had been betrayed by rumors of drug involvement and once vowed to never work for the Dodgers again.

Presumably, Tracy will manage the Dodgers for at least another season.

While there are signs that Tracy and General Manager Paul DePodesta don't always share common baseball philosophies (Hee-Seop Choi's participation, for one), DePodesta appears satisfied with Tracy's work.

The body of evidence, so far, says Tracy stays through 2006, the end of his two-year extension.

Baker managed the San Francisco Giants for 10 seasons that included three postseason appearances and one World Series.

After the 2002 season, he signed a four-year, $15-million contract to manage the Cubs, and came within a win of the World Series in his first season in Chicago.

Those who know Baker often have put his final job in Arizona, where he would work for Jeff Moorad, his longtime friend and agent who now is a general partner there.

Perhaps we could pray that Tracy opts out of his final year and the Cubs release Baker. I'd be willing to bet that DePodesta is dumb enough to take him.

And for all those who think the Cubs are making the playoffs - when you struggle at home to split series with sub .500 teams, you're probably going to have problems both at home and on the road with quality teams like the Cardinals, Astros, and Braves (24 games remaining with those three teams).

And even though Nomar, Wood, and Williamson will [allegedly] be on the squad by the end of this week, their impact can be summarizd by four simple words:

Too little, too late.

If you haven't already, start thinking about next year [again], and pray that this non-managing manager flies the coup for the greener pastures of LA.

Chris & Bills' Almost Excellent Adventure



At this point Christopher is still smiling and optimistic (we haven't entered Wrigley yet).







That wonderful nostalgic scoreboard.
(Notice the flags indicate a good breeze in from right field.)











Chris & Bill behind 3rd base











Rothschild in search of talent.

Jerome is warming up.












Unfortunately this game reached its apex at this point. The Diamondback's second batter, Chad Tracy, crushed a ball through that stiff right field breeze to make it 1-0. Although he was in a jam in nearly every inning, which ran his pitch count up, Williams would only allow that run and deserved a better fate. The bull pen gave up 5 runs later and once again an anemic offense led to defeat.

Dag Nabbit!

ESPN is reporting (through the afternoon Sportscenter) that talks are ongoing between the Red Sox, Devil Rays (Chuck LeMar is a disgrace), and the Mets (is there no end to Omar Minaya's free spending madness?) for a trade that would send Aubrey Huff to the Red Sox, Manny Ramirez to the Mets and I can't remember whom to the Devil Rays.

How the Mets would be able to take on another $20 million per year contract after their free spending in the off season is beyond me. Minaya is starting to really peave me off.

If this goes down, it will be the second time this year that Minaya has snatched up a top player who Hendry was reportedly interested in. And in case you forgot, the Mets (who were just pitiful last year) are just as much in the wildcard race as the Cubs.

Do you think Minaya's aggressiveness has had anything to do with that dramatic turn around?

To trade or not to trade...

Well, As Camden mentioned earlier, Bill and I were at the Diamondbacks game yesterday. It was a beautiful(!) day, and it's always a treat to be at Wrigley, which is about all I can say positively about yesterday's game. Oh yeah, we enjoyed an excellent dinner at Portillo's on our way back to Peoria - I ordered the big beef with HOT peppers, a hot tamale, and a vanilla malt (Portillo's is one of the few places where you can actually taste the MALT in their malt shakes).

In any event, the Cubs stunk it up offensively, never managing more than one hit in any inning, but that's become somewhat commonplace for a team that has been wildly inconsistent this season. In fact, it seems that as AmRam and Lee go, so goes the fate of the Cubs. Yesterday those two posted an 0-6 line, which was also (interestingly enough) the final score of the game.

Well enough of that.

The question before us is whether the Cubs should be active before the fast approaching trade deadline. The most exciting rumors involve Manny Ramirez or Alfonso Soriano. In fact, this speculative reasoning from Desipio (far and away the finest Cubs related blog/media enterprise there is) is very interesting:

But Hendry’s thinking bigger than Soriano…he’s thinking Manny Ramirez. The problem isn’t that the Cubs and Red Sox need a third team to make the deal happen, the problem is that they need the Reds to be that third team. The deal being discussed would send Rich Hill and Corey Patterson from the Cubs to the Reds, Adam Dunn and Kent Mercker to the Red Sox and Manny Ramirez to the Cubs and minor league pitcher Jon Papelbon to the Reds.

The problem is going to be getting the Reds to do anything.

The Red Sox are sick and tired of Manny, and last week when he hid in the Fenway scoreboard and nearly missed a pitch, and then SI reported Manny wanted a trade…again. But the Sox are not in a position to get rid of Manny without replacing his bat. There is also not a fit on another team where they could just trade Manny for that stick. The Cubs don’t have anything to deal for Manny, but they have plenty to deal to the Reds for Dunn.

The Reds don’t want to trade Dunn to the Cubs, and they want a Major League caliber player and two top pitching prospects .

So this deal fits everybody’s needs. The Red Sox replace Manny with a younger player and a guy who can approximate his offensive value, and they get a lefty reliever (even if it is Mercker).

The Reds get the value they identified they needed for Dunn, and they don’t have to send him within the division to the Cubs.

The Cubs get a great left fielder and we can read stories for a week full of [expletive] about how Dusty will be able to “communicate” with Manny.

Are there drawbacks? Of course there are. Manny’s effort makes E-ramis look like Pete Rose. His defense makes Jason Dubois look like Ichiro. But he can hit. No, not hit, he can rake.

If the Reds back out, then Hendry will turn to a lesser deal for Soriano, and the headaches that having an outfield made up of two second basemen and Jeromy Burnitz will cause.

Well that's all good and well - and I would love to have Manny Ramirez on the Cubs, especially since he is one of the finest hitters currently in the game and it would make the remaining games certainly more exciting to watch.

But the real question is whether the Cubs should do anything before the trade deadline if they don't get exactly the deal they want. The rational for making a less than ideal deal (work with me here) BEFORE the deadline hinges on a number of factors, of course, not the least of them being the assistance the trade would give to the team THIS year.

Now, since this team has so little margin for error (they will have to play 40-20 over the next 60 games to get to 92 wins which will probably be cutting it close in terms of getting in via the wildcard) , the question has to be asked what the liklihood is of the Cubs putting up that kind of record EVEN WITH the acquisition of Ramirez or Soriano.

Don't forget that of the 60 remaining games, 11 of those are against the Cardinals, 10 of them are against the Astros, and they have 3 left with the red hot Braves. So they have 24 games left against pretty darn good teams. In other words, the Cubs will have to play really really well and really consistently over the next 60 games to get in.

Would acquiring Manny Ramirez or Soriano help them get there? Probably (and Ramirez would be more of a help than Soriano), but I still don't think it would be enough in light of the miniscule room for error the Cubs currently have AND the other problems that still need to be addressed (the bullpen).

So, if that's true (and I think it is), then the Cubs should only make a trade if it helps them beyond this season. A short-term fix for this season (like the Astros did last year with Beltran) will probably prove futile, since it will take nothing short of a herculean effort by this club to get into the postseason and I just don't think it's happening - even with the names currently being mentioned.

So memo to Jim (since we know you're a regular reader of the pablum found at this blog), take Ramirez if you can get him, but forget about Soriano.

If you can't get Ramirez, be more aggressive in the coming offseason than you were last year and go get some impact bats either through trade or free agency (and the former will probably be easier than the latter).

Neifi!

After Dempster walked the pinch hitter (and he had him down 1-2 before eventually walking him - throwing a miserable SLIDER on a 3-2 count no less!), and THEN gave up a single double to Eckstein (a play in which I very nearly threw my remote through the television) - I will admit that I thought the Cubs had blown it [again].

And yet, after a Todd Walker double, an intentional BB for Lee (whom the Cardinals avoided like the plague tonight), an excellent sac bunt by Burnitz (when the heck was the last time he was asked to lay down a bunt?!), and another intentional BB to Aramis (which loaded the bases)...

Neifi! comes through with a very surprising grand slam home-run (and after Neifi's homer, there's no need to dwell on the miserable AB by Barrett - and don't even get me started on the AB by Jose F. Macias)!

Very nice boys - although I don't know how many of these types of games I can take. Even though the Cubs won the series - I feel like we just committed a crime and we need to get out of town as quickly as possible to tell you the truth.

In any event, this is what this team needs to continue to do - just win series. 1 down - 20 series left. If they win them all, they finish with 94 wins.

win 2/3 vs. SF
win 3/4 vs. AZ
win 2/3 vs. PHI
win 2/3 vs. NYM
win 2/3 vs. CIN
win 3/4 vs. STL
win 2/3 vs. HOU
win 2/3 vs. COL
win 2/3 vs. ATL
win 2/3 vs. FLA
win 2/3 vs. LAD
win 2/3 vs. PIT
win 2/3 vs. STL
win 3/4 vs. SF
win 2/3 vs. CIN
win 3/4 vs. STL
win 2/3 vs. MIL
win 2/3 vs. HOU
win 1/2 vs. PIT
win 3/4 vs. HOU

That gets them to 94. Split a 4 game series or lose a 3 game and it reduces their total possible wins by 1 (assuming the Cubs don't make it up by sweeping a subsequent series).

Nomar will be here in Peoria!

Nomar will be here in Peoria Tuesday as the Chiefs open up a 4 game series against Dayton and it would be nice if the wife and I are able to get over to O'Brien field to see how he looks. We'll see - I'll report if we're able to make it to a game.

There's the first series to get away...

With that series split - if the Cubs win out their remaining series (21 to go), they end up with 94 wins.

Here's what it will take to get to 94 wins now - they have to...

win 2/3 vs. STL
win 2/3 vs. SF
win 3/4 vs. AZ
win 2/3 vs. PHI
win 2/3 vs. NYM
win 2/3 vs. CIN
win 3/4 vs. STL
win 2/3 vs. HOU
win 2/3 vs. COL
win 2/3 vs. ATL
win 2/3 vs. FLA
win 2/3 vs. LAD
win 2/3 vs. PIT
win 2/3 vs. STL
win 3/4 vs. SF
win 2/3 vs. CIN
win 3/4 vs. STL
win 2/3 vs. MIL
win 2/3 vs. HOU
win 1/2 vs. PIT
win 3/4 vs. HOU

That will equal 46 wins/21 losses, for a final record of 94-68 (a record that probably gets them in).

I've bolded the series that will be challenging for them to win. Every series from this point forward that they fail to win drops their total possible wins by at least one (and 2 if they lose a 4 game series).

There's not a lot of room for error at this point.

One series won (Pirates) - 22 to go...

As I noted in an earlier post, for the Cubs to get to 95 wins they have to win every one of their remaining series (and that will equal going 50-25 over the 75 games remaining after the all star break).

The calculus is simple - If they win every one of their remaining series - that will get them to 95 wins, and a likely postseason berth via the wildcard (and btw - in the last 5 years, the lowest win total to get a team in through the wildcard was 91 wins in 2003 and the average win total of the wildcard winner for the last 5 years is 93).

Now, in reality - the Cubs don't have to actually win every one of their remaining series to get to 95 wins - if they drop or split a series, for instance, they can make it up with a subsequent series sweep.

However, for every series loss or split that isn't made up by a subsequent series sweep, the total wins the Cubs can finish with drops by one. For example, if they win 21 of the next 22 series (and don't sweep any of the remaining series) - they finish at 94 wins. If they win 20 of the next 22 series (and don't sweep any of the remaining series) - they finish with 93 wins, and so on.

You get the idea.

How probable is it that the Cubs win out their remaining series and get to 95 wins or even 20 of the next 22 to get to 93 wins?

Well, consider that 4 of the 22 remaining series are against St. Louis - 1 is against Atlanta - and the Cubs have 3 remaining series against a surging Houston team.

My friends, the Cubs will have to play - not like an above average or even a good team from this point forward - they will need to play like an incredible team to even get to 93 wins (let alone 91).

Think about it, just to get to 93 wins they have to win 20 of the next 22 series - and 4 of the remaining 22 series are against the Cardinals (the team with the best record in the NL in case you forgot)!

It ain't happening, this is not an incredible team - they have played like a slightly above average team (recent results against terrible teams not withstanding) and a slightly above average team just won't be able to do what it takes to get to 95 (or 93) wins.

And the gravity of this somber reality will become more and more apparent with every subsequent series loss from this point forward.

Do the math folks - it's over...

Despite all the evidence (and we have over half a season's worth) which to a reasonable person would suggest exactly the opposite conclusion, some eternally optimistic folks continue to hold out hope for the postseason for this club.

Well, let's do the math, and you can arrive at your own conclusions.

The team's current record is 43-44 and they have 75 games remaining:

9 vs. PIT
10 vs. CIN
14 vs. STL
7 vs. SF
4 vs. ARI
3 vs. PHI
3 vs. NYM
10 vs. HOU
3 vs. COL
3 vs. ATL
3 vs. FLA
3 vs. LAD
3 vs. MIL

What will it take to get to the postseason? Well that's a speculative question -and as we know - there are 2 routes to get there - win your division or win the wild card. For all intensive purposes (and barring some ridiculous disaster) the Cardinals have already locked up the division. So that leaves the wild card as the most realistic avenue for the Cubs to attempt to enter the postseason.

What will it take to win the wild card? It's anybody's guess, but you have to start somewhere, and so I'm guessing that possibly 93 games puts you right in that race (and this may very well be too low - last year it took 92 games to win the wildcard and this year the Braves and Nationals are both looking tough). So, for the sake of argument, let's start with 93 games gets you in (and as I said, I think this number may be on the low side).

That means the Cubs would have to go 50-25 over their next 75 games, and to do that my friends, they would have to win every one of their remaining series (and that includes taking 8 of the 14 remaining games with the Cardinals).

Now let me ask you - how probable do you think it is that this team will win every one of their remaining series?

And even this may not be enough, as I mentioned - so it may also take a few series sweeps as well to actually get in.

There is no way my friends - pack it up and start planning for next year. This team has played itself into a position where there is now no margin for error. If you think this team can win every one of it's remaining series, DEA agents probably need to be paying you a visit.

But, and nevertheless - as one erstwhile commentator has shown himself especially adept at saying...

Keep the faith!

After hearing the comments Andy McPhail made today while visiting the Cub's Class A affiliate in Peoria, I believe this is the official status at headquarters.

I appreciated Randy’s Christian testimony in his last “From the Red States” update. However, I want to point out a couple of things. In spite of what the lexicons say, several Bible scholars believe that the traditional King James usage of the word “carpenter” for the Greek word transliterated “tektone” is incorrect or inaccurate. Ray Vander Laan argues that a better choice of word here would be “builder”. Given the raw materials available in the vicinity of Nazareth during the earthly life of Joseph and Jesus, it is more likely that Jesus was a worker, former or builder with stone.

If you’re still with me, you ask, “what does stone have to do with the Chicago Cubs?”. The answer is Stone, Steve Stone my friends. He was the lone voice of one crying in the baseball wilderness, chiding Chicago Cubs players and management to get serious about their approach to this game. But, alas, our only honest baseball prophet was run out of town.

Stone’s most recent comments on Mark Prior facing the Sox may have proven to be unfounded, but by and large what he was saying before and since he left town is accurate.
Management can put the best array of stars on the field possible, but in the end the players have to get it done. Last year’s team, injuries notwithstanding, had the playoffs in their grasp and let it get away. The prophet Stone was correct to tell it like it is, but got run out of town in the process.

My concern this year is that I perceive that team management has not held up their end of the bargain. Content to stand pat with the hand they have, this team is slouching into the second half of the season at .500 and the Cardinals are nowhere within site. With the Nats playing the way they are, it is probably going to take at least 25 over .500 to take the wildcard spot away from Atlanta. If Wood and Prior are truly healthy then we can at least take some solace in having one of the best starting 5 in the league. But the pitiful anemic offensive pattern of 2004 is back. Other than Superman Lee over at first base and an occasional outburst by Aramis, the offense is in the tank. The second half of this year is going to be AGONIZING to watch. To see your starting pitchers go out there day after day and hold the opposition to only 2 or 3 runs over 7 innings but still lose is despicable. And I am afraid that we are going to see too much of this kind of baseball in the second half.

I know we are only halfway through the season, plenty of baseball left, but unless management decides to get serious and acquire an outfield this season is already over. Burnitz is probably having a decent year for Burnitz, but it’s not enough to propel this team. “Full House” Holly is a good guy, good reserve, but is not of starter caliber these days. If there were such a position as “designated fielder” then I wouldn’t mind Corey in my center field spot. However, there is no such thing, so I say we ship Corey to Peoria.

I believe that this year represents a turning point for the Chicago Cubs as a franchise. With the close call that the Cubs had in 2003 and the last-minute flop of 2004, Cub fans are at the apex of their interest or possibly now slightly past it. The frustration is building quickly and you can see it manifest itself in how players who have traditionally been loved are now getting booed off of the field when they don’t come through. If management doesn’t take action to strengthen this team soon, they are going to see a decline in fan interest that may take a decade to get back.