One series won (Pirates) - 22 to go...

As I noted in an earlier post, for the Cubs to get to 95 wins they have to win every one of their remaining series (and that will equal going 50-25 over the 75 games remaining after the all star break).

The calculus is simple - If they win every one of their remaining series - that will get them to 95 wins, and a likely postseason berth via the wildcard (and btw - in the last 5 years, the lowest win total to get a team in through the wildcard was 91 wins in 2003 and the average win total of the wildcard winner for the last 5 years is 93).

Now, in reality - the Cubs don't have to actually win every one of their remaining series to get to 95 wins - if they drop or split a series, for instance, they can make it up with a subsequent series sweep.

However, for every series loss or split that isn't made up by a subsequent series sweep, the total wins the Cubs can finish with drops by one. For example, if they win 21 of the next 22 series (and don't sweep any of the remaining series) - they finish at 94 wins. If they win 20 of the next 22 series (and don't sweep any of the remaining series) - they finish with 93 wins, and so on.

You get the idea.

How probable is it that the Cubs win out their remaining series and get to 95 wins or even 20 of the next 22 to get to 93 wins?

Well, consider that 4 of the 22 remaining series are against St. Louis - 1 is against Atlanta - and the Cubs have 3 remaining series against a surging Houston team.

My friends, the Cubs will have to play - not like an above average or even a good team from this point forward - they will need to play like an incredible team to even get to 93 wins (let alone 91).

Think about it, just to get to 93 wins they have to win 20 of the next 22 series - and 4 of the remaining 22 series are against the Cardinals (the team with the best record in the NL in case you forgot)!

It ain't happening, this is not an incredible team - they have played like a slightly above average team (recent results against terrible teams not withstanding) and a slightly above average team just won't be able to do what it takes to get to 95 (or 93) wins.

And the gravity of this somber reality will become more and more apparent with every subsequent series loss from this point forward.